5.19.2018

Late Week Buzz

Economics

College costs: SHELL GAMING, PART I and SHELL GAMING, PART II

Demographics and Inflation
Demographic shifts, such as population ageing, have been suggested as possible explanations for the past decade’s low inflation. We exploit cross-country variation in a long panel to identify age structure effects in inflation, controlling for standard monetary factors. A robust relationship emerges that accords with the lifecycle hypothesis. That is, inflationary pressure rises when the share of dependants increases and, conversely, subsides when the share of working age population increases. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about7 percentage points of US disinflation since the 1980s. It predicts rising inflation over the coming decades. 

Inequality

Billionaires Have Too Much Political Power    No Shit?

The 9.9 Percent Is the New American Aristocracy


Neoliberalism

Stumbling and Mumbling on Neoliberalism
 In the mid-80s nobody argued that the share of GDP going to the top 1% should double. Of course, many advocated policies which, it turns out, had this effect. Some of them intended this. But those policies were justified on other grounds, often sincerely. Instead, the belief that the top 1% “deserve” 15% of total incomes rather than 7-8% has mostly followed them getting 15%, not led it. A host of cognitive biases – the just world illusion, anchoring effect and status quo bias underpin an ideology which defends inequality. John Jost calls this system justification (pdf). You can gather all these biases under the umbrella term “neoliberal ideology” if you want. But it follows economic events rather than is the creator of them.


Middle East Wars.

Killing Gaza

The American Conservative: Get Ready for the New Middle East Battlefield: The Golan  This AC article shows Israel trying to provoke Syria and Iran in the Golan. That Israel, is a friend of ISIS as long as they fight Syria and that Israel is pretty good at provoking its enemies.
A check of the actual conflict chronology shows that Israel initiated the incident by striking Syrian military targets in Kisweh (the Damascus suburbs) and Baath city (Quneitra) over the two preceding days. Russia had warned both Syria and Iran of the impending Israeli strike with the result that neither Iranian military personnel nor weapons systems appear to have been hit. The Syrian military (and not the IRGC) retaliated by firing 55 rockets at Israeli military outposts and installations in the occupied part of the Golan. Local Arab media identified these targets as key Israeli surveillance centers that crippled Israel’s “eyes and ears” along that vital demarcation line. Israel’s vaunted “Iron Dome” defense system failed to intercept most of these rockets, while the Syrian military intercepted more than half of Israel’s missiles, according to Russian military officials.
   and
Israel has materially backed many of these militant forces along its border with Syria for years, including medical and other forms of support for extremists, like al-Nusra fighters, and moral support for ISIS, which maintains a small presence on Israel’s border with Syria. Nusra and ISIS, after all, have been the most successful “opposition” forces combating the SAA in the Syrian crisis, and were therefore valuable assets for Israel-–especially as neither group has shown any inclination to target the Israelis. ISIS once even apologized to Israel for a brief clash with IDF forces in late 2016.
   and
while it is unlikely that any of Israel’s three opponents (Syria, Iran, or Hezbollah) will choose to pick a fight with the Israelis right now, it’s also clear that all of them will retaliate if provoked. In the past seven years, the Middle East has never been so close to war as it is today, which is why there’s an urgent need for cooler heads to prevail—even if, as with Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah—they need to retaliate in order to de-escalate conflict and establish deterrence.

Trump

Donald Trump is a hero to Jewish Israelis. American Jews and Evangelicals too. The embassy move and dropping out of the Iran deal have probably moved his approval rating more than anything else he could have done. Both are bad for the world in the long run but help him and the R's today.


Trump personally pushed postmaster general to double rates on Amazon, other firms. A spoiled rich kid trying anything to get his way.

Felix Salmon on Shady looking Real Estate Deals




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