9.28.2016

Shy Trump Voters?

FiveThirtyEight discussing shy Trump Voters

What Could The Polls Be Missing? | FiveThirtyEight:

Hypothesis #2: The polls are underestimating Trump because of shy Trump voters.

We’ve covered this a bit, so let’s do it quickly, but the argument is that there’s a social stigma in some areas attached to supporting Trump, so the polls are underestimating his support because some of his supporters are unwilling to say they back him.

Any takers?

harry: It is quite funny to think Trump supporters are shy when they all seem to take the time to vote in these stupid non-scientific online polls after debates.

clare.malone: In the primaries Trump voters weren’t shy, were they? Does that change for the general?


harry: Right, there is no proof they were shy in the primaries. Moreover, Trump supporters are more likely than Clinton voters to make it through the likely voter screens, indicating they are more vocal and enthusiastic in their support. The polls could still underestimate Trump, but they could also underestimate Clinton.

natesilver: In the abstract, it’s a plausible theory. There’s a fair bit of evidence on the impact of social desirability bias. I just don’t know if it fits the facts of the case all that well. Trump voters aren’t shy, for one thing. They’re actually more demonstrative than Clinton voters, in many, many respects."

Yeah, I don't think Trump voters are shy, at least not here in Teabagistan (east-central Indiana). If anything I'd guess it's the HRC voters who are a bit shy.

My current sign count (scientificaly based on several hundred miles of back-road, small-town motorcycling)

"Trump" = 345
"Hillary" = 3
"Hillary for prison" = 2
"Hillary. Lock her up" = 1

So the Trump voters around here aren't all that shy, instead I think they are rather, well, Trump-ish.

The HRC voters, hell, they almost don't exist and that just can't be right. There has to be some HRC support out here somewhere. Not a lot, but more than my sign count shows. She's not well liked out here but still, it can't be that bad.

so..

I think the HRC supporters out here are basically afraid to show support for her. They are in a sea of half-crazed, gun-toting, Trump supporters who are also Fox News Watching Hillary haters. Putting a Hillary sign in your yard is inviting trouble so they just aren't doing it.

Still, She ain't winning Indiana

But no,... Trump voters aren't shy.

tnb





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9.25.2016

Protest Votes


A vote for Trump will
  • Be an endorsement of a pro-white, racist candidate 
  • Embolden the racist, "Make America White Again" element here at home.
  • Help prolong our wars against various regimes around the world.
  • Guarantee Israel's settlement building, US military aid, and oppression of Palestinians.
  • Make weapons manufacturers a lot of money.
  • Lead to more free-market, business friendly,  anti-environment, R-like economic policies that favor business over people.
  • Less gridlock.
  • Reduce Taxes on the wealthy.
  • Increase taxes on the rest of us.
  • Hurt the poor and lower-middle class.
  • Help the world's elite.
  • Make the gun nuts happy.
  • Put the Taliban-like, evangelical Mike Pence one heart beat away from the presidency.

A vote for Hillary will
  • Be an endorsement of the policies that led to the Trump's rise.
  • Help prolong our wars against various regimes around the world.
  • Guarantee Israel's settlement building, US military aid, and oppression of Palestinians.
  • Make weapons manufacturers a lot of money.
  • Lead to more free-market, business friendly,  pro-environment, D-like economic policies that favor business over people. 
  • Lead to four more years of gridlock.
  • Have little affect on taxes on the wealthy.
  • Have little affect on taxes on the rest of us.
  • Hurt the lower-middle class.
  • Help the world's elite.
  • Piss-off the gun nuts even though there will be no gun control legislation
  • Keep the Taliban-like, evangelical Mike Pence far away from the presidency.

I can't vote for either.

For those on the left with similar feelings. I'd suggest a protest vote only if you live in a Deep Red state like Indiana, where Trump is going to win regardless of the left-wing vote.

Write in "Jill Stein", "Bernie Sanders" or "None of the above". 

The D's have to be told that they can't just keep forcing crappy establishment candidates on the people.

For the rest of you, let your conscience be your guide,

Vote HRC if your stomach will allow but, as a party, the R's have already crashed-and-burned. The D's may have to crash too if we're ever going to get a governing class that cares about the people.



tnb

Broken Guardrails of Democracy

Pretty good read here.

Donald Trump and the Seven Broken Guardrails of Democracy - The Atlantic:

A couple of thoughts...

Trump is the candidate of the Fox News crowd, nothing else. Most of what he says (believes ?) comes from the highlight reel of Fox News Crazy during the Obama years, The R's had used the Fox News group to stop Obama policy and make pretty nice gains in the last few elections but they finally lost control. Trump is the result. (I'd like to see a map of Trump supporters vs Fox News ratings.)

On this
62 percent of Republicans insisted that “ordinary Americans” would do a better job solving the country’s problems than professional politicians.
Why wouldn't they think that? The pols, D or R, they elected sure didn't fix their problems.

If the establishment, either D's or the R's, had spent some of the last 30 years focusing on the plight of middle class Americans instead of the plight of big business, multi-national corporations, the filthy rich and war, these people wouldn't be up in arms.

The system is broken.

R voters think big bad government is to blame. D voters think the greed of the filthy rich and the multi-nationals are to blame. Both are right. The government the R's hate is the result of our "Government of the people" being captured by the filthy rich and the multi-nationals. The people are going to be up in arms until the government focuses on them again.

The R's lost control this year but the D's were close to losing it too. It took a herculean effort of the D establishment and the Media to hold off Bernie and put HRC in the seat. If things don't change, Their Trump will come.

Stop American Corrupitalism and get back to a government that works for more people and the Trump-Like candidates will fade into history.

tnb





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9.21.2016

Courtiers Tyrants

Good post here.

 The Courtiers and the Tyrants | Global Research - Centre for Research on Globalization:

including what I believe is this root problem with US Politics......
.. the Republican and the Democratic elites, along with our financial and corporate elites, are one entity. They are formed in the same institutions, run in the same social circles and cross-pollinate like bees. This has been true since the country’s formation. Harvard and Yale were designed, like Oxford and Cambridge in Britain, to perpetuate the plutocracy. They do an admirable job.

Hillary Clinton sat in the front row for Donald Trump’s third wedding. And Chelsea Clinton, living in a multimillion-dollar penthouse in New York City, was until the current presidential campaign a close friend of Ivanka Trump. George W. Bush, although doltish and inept, graduated from Andover, Yale and Harvard Business School. His appointees were no less steeped in elitist Ivy League credentials than those around Bill Clinton or Barack Obama. Paul Wolfowitz attended Cornell and the University of Chicago. Donald Rumsfeld went to Princeton. Henry “Hank” Paulson graduated from Dartmouth and Harvard Business School before working for Goldman Sachs. Lewis “Scooter” Libby went to Yale and Columbia Law School (as well as the pre-prep school that I attended). Joshua Bolten, a chief of staff for President George W. Bush, went to Princeton and Stanford Law School.

The problem is not the liberal elites. The problem is the elites. They serve the same ideology. They work in the same financial institutions, hedge funds and foundations, including the Council on Foreign Relations, where government officials often are parked when they are out of power. They belong to the same clubs. They are stunted technocrats who function as systems managers for corporate capitalism. And no class of courtiers, going back to those that populated the Ottoman palaces, Versailles or the Forbidden City, has ever transformed itself into a responsible elite. They are, as John Ralston Saul writes, “hedonists of power.”

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War vs College...

War,... why we can't have nice things.

Commentary: For $178 million, the U.S. could pay for one fighter plane – or 3,358 years of college | Reuters:

As a kind of thought experiment, let's begin by rounding off the military higher education benefit, tuition and living stipend, to $53,000 a year. We’ll note a single F-35 fighter plane costs $178 million. 
Dropping just one plane from inventory generates 3,358 years of college money. We could pass on buying a handful of the planes, and a lot of people who now find college out of reach could go to school.


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Why they hate us?

It's not "our freedoms".

US aid deal gives green light to Israel's erasure of Palestine:

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A little Music

9.16.2016

The person to vote for......

Jill Stein on U.S. Policy in the Mideast | RealClearWorld:

I'd like to hear HRC or Trump's answer to these questions. Until I do, Stein gets my vote.

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Religion in US

Religion in US 'worth more than Google and Apple combined' | World news | The Guardian:

Religion is the best tax scam there is.

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Trump is the Symptom, Clinton is the Disease

Trump is the Symptom, Clinton is the Disease:

In short, Trump is the symptom; Clinton is the disease. In other words, the conditions that have allowed for a candidacy such as the likes of Trump were the product of neoliberal policies personified by the likes of Clinton.
and  
Jill Stein, the Green Party presidential candidate succinctly sums it up: “[voting for] the lesser evil paves the way for the greater evil.”

I agree......

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