9.20.2015

The Experience Fallacy

The Experience Fallacy - A Wealth of Common SenseA Wealth of Common Sense:

"I’ve witnessed firsthand how easy it can be for very bright and experienced individuals to allow their past experiences to cloud their worldview. One of the biggest downsides of experienced practitioners is that many of them think they have everything figured out. It’s very easy for people to get stuck in their ways and not adapt with the world around them. Irrational ideologies are far more damaging to the decision-making process than inexperience. 
This is why we had Depression babies who were risk averse for decades after the Great Depression. Investors who came up during the 1970s expected interest rates and inflation to stay high forever. Almost everyone who invested in the 80s or 90s became complacent and assumed mid-double digit stock market gains were their birthright. The latest generation of investors have decided that the world is going to end once a week because we’ve lived through two huge crashes in the past 15 years."
.. or why people who lived and worked during the Reagan years think tax cuts are the answer to every economic issue.

'via Blog this'

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