Protest Votes

Economist's View: 'Forecasting Elections':

People often vote against someone or something rather than for someone or something, the classic protest vote.

Currently both parties are seeing this, with the anti-R's, Trump and Cruz, winning while the R candidates struggle and the anti-D, Mr. Sanders running surprisingly strong against the D candidate, HillaryC.  The media's mostly focused on the R-side with lot's of talk about how the R voters are angry but in reality, the D's have the same issue. People are voting against each party's chosen candidate.

Why? The anti-party votes are protest votes against the system as a whole rather than the parties themselves.

From the voters perspective, D or R,  the government of the last 30-40 years just doesn't work very well for them, incomes continue to fall, jobs are shipped over seas, the infrastructure is crumbling, our schools suck, drugs and crime seem to be everywhere, the level of debt is crushing. The people have very little power and their future seems bleak.

On the other hand, If you're part of the corporate-political elite, government works pretty well for you. Low taxes allow you pile up wealth, low wages for your workers help the bottom line, trade policies can be changed in your favor, bankruptcy laws can be changed to protect the creditors, the unions have been broken, usury and truth-in-advertising laws are gone, debtors prisons are back, you're making a lot of cash and have power to get your way. You are in control.

Trump, Cruz, and Sanders supporters are the first group. Hillary, Bush, Rubio, Kasich, etc. supporters are the second. So what we really have at this point is about  55-60% of the votes cast in the primaries going against the establishment. (Trump, Cruz at about 60% of the R vote and Sanders at about 45-50% of the larger over-all D vote.)

The people are pissed and lashing out at a captured system.

Those in control are scrambling to hold on to power.

The establishment will probably survive this time. It's hard to see how an establishment candidate doesn't win but if the system doesn't respond to the people this time, look out the next time.



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