What Could The Polls Be Missing? | FiveThirtyEight:
Hypothesis #2: The polls are underestimating Trump because of shy Trump voters.
We’ve covered this a bit, so let’s do it quickly, but the argument is that there’s a social stigma in some areas attached to supporting Trump, so the polls are underestimating his support because some of his supporters are unwilling to say they back him.
harry: It is quite funny to think Trump supporters are shy when they all seem to take the time to vote in these stupid non-scientific online polls after debates.
clare.malone: In the primaries Trump voters weren’t shy, were they? Does that change for the general?
harry: Right, there is no proof they were shy in the primaries. Moreover, Trump supporters are more likely than Clinton voters to make it through the likely voter screens, indicating they are more vocal and enthusiastic in their support. The polls could still underestimate Trump, but they could also underestimate Clinton.
natesilver: In the abstract, it’s a plausible theory. There’s a fair bit of evidence on the impact of social desirability bias. I just don’t know if it fits the facts of the case all that well. Trump voters aren’t shy, for one thing. They’re actually more demonstrative than Clinton voters, in many, many respects."
Yeah, I don't think Trump voters are shy, at least not here in Teabagistan (east-central Indiana). If anything I'd guess it's the HRC voters who are a bit shy.
My current sign count (scientificaly based on several hundred miles of back-road, small-town motorcycling)
"Trump" = 345
"Hillary" = 3
"Hillary for prison" = 2
"Hillary. Lock her up" = 1
So the Trump voters around here aren't all that shy, instead I think they are rather, well, Trump-ish.
The HRC voters, hell, they almost don't exist and that just can't be right. There has to be some HRC support out here somewhere. Not a lot, but more than my sign count shows. She's not well liked out here but still, it can't be that bad.
I think the HRC supporters out here are basically afraid to show support for her. They are in a sea of half-crazed, gun-toting, Trump supporters who are also Fox News Watching Hillary haters. Putting a Hillary sign in your yard is inviting trouble so they just aren't doing it.
Still, She ain't winning Indiana
But no,... Trump voters aren't shy.
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