The Telegraph’s Mike Smithson wondered whether the depressed turnout was a product of an unusually negative campaign. “A number of pundits are suggesting that this has been the most negative campaign ever…,” Mr. Smithson wrote. He also suggested that lower Republican turnout was good news for Mr. Obama.
But, on that note, the FiveThirtyEight post had words of caution for giddy Democrats: “It is not entirely clear what implications this has for November. Rallying the party base is often easier than persuading independent voters, and levels of voter engagement sometimes become clear only late in a presidential campaign.”
Indeed, Sean Trende, at RealClearPolitics, went back and looked at primary turnout for both parties going back to 1972 and found that a party’s primary turnout was not a good predictor of general election success or failure.
I agree, the republican base will turn out in 2012. After three years of constant propaganda from Fox News and the Right, the wingnuts have been brainwashed to hate, absolutely hate, every thing about Obama, true or not. Fox will make sure the hate builds through November so the wingnuts will turn out in droves. Its going to be an ugly election.
tnb
No comments:
Post a Comment