Out here in Teabagistan, the most common stated "fact" I hear about the coronavirus is "it's not really any worse than the flu". My gut tells me this is the story making the rounds on conservative news as everyone I've heard this from is a right-wing, Fox-News-watching Trumper and has announced it like it was a known fact.
I think about all anyone can say at this time is that it may be better, worse, or about the same as the flu but we just don't know enough to make that call.
We just don't know! However, what is known makes it clear that we can't just act like it's just like the flu.
I'm no expert but here's my take. It all depends on,
1. How fast it can spread.
2. How deadly it is once someone has it.
3. How soon a vaccine is available.
We don't know the definitive answer to any of these at this time. The counts are changing rapidly and it's hard to find good complete numbers. Anyway, here goes....
1. How fast it can spread.
How it spreads and how fast it can spread is largely unknown at this time. New cases are popping up all over. Some new cases have appeared with no connection to known infected cases.
I did find this from a couple days ago which suggests it may spread faster than the flu.
2. How deadly it is once someone has it.
Death rates vary also. 2% has been reported. 1.4% has also been reported with an article claiming it could settle down to a flu-like rate of .1%. Again, we don't know
3. How soon a vaccine is available.
We have flu vaccines. They don't always match up with the type of flu in a given year but experts agree that they help.
There is nothing for the coronavirus at this time. It could take a year, two years, or be available within a few weeks. We don't know.
The Unknowns
The unknowns here the big deal. A quick comparison just looking at the US gives a wide range of outcomes.
In 2016-17, approximately 29 million people got the flu and 38,000 or about .13% died. [CDC]
If the coronavirus infects and spreads at the same rate as the flu but still lives up to the death rates shown above. Then 2% of 29 million or 580,000 deaths could be expected. If the death rate is only 1% then expected deaths could be 290,000.
But, at this point there is reason to believe it could be more infectious than the flu. What if twice as many people were infected?
58 million infections at a 2% death rate would be over a million deaths, in the US.
A comparison....
Also, we have tools to fight the flu. There is a flu vaccine to limit the infection rate and Tamiflu to help the infected fight it off. They don't always work but they help. At this point we don't have anything for the CV.
So,...... It could be "the same as the flu". Hell, it could be less deadly than the flu but it could be a hell of a lot worse with maybe 20 or 30 times as many deaths. We just don't know.
And I know there are those who disagree with these numbers but this is based on the numbers out there at this time. They are subject to change.
And again,.......I'm not claiming any of the above will happen. Hell, I don't have a clue but I do know.....
tnb
I think about all anyone can say at this time is that it may be better, worse, or about the same as the flu but we just don't know enough to make that call.
We just don't know! However, what is known makes it clear that we can't just act like it's just like the flu.
I'm no expert but here's my take. It all depends on,
1. How fast it can spread.
2. How deadly it is once someone has it.
3. How soon a vaccine is available.
We don't know the definitive answer to any of these at this time. The counts are changing rapidly and it's hard to find good complete numbers. Anyway, here goes....
1. How fast it can spread.
How it spreads and how fast it can spread is largely unknown at this time. New cases are popping up all over. Some new cases have appeared with no connection to known infected cases.
I did find this from a couple days ago which suggests it may spread faster than the flu.
Currently, the R0 for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes the disease COVID-19, is estimated at about 2.2, meaning a single infected person will infect about 2.2 others, on average. By comparison, the flu has an R0 of 1.3.
[https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html]
2. How deadly it is once someone has it.
Death rates vary also. 2% has been reported. 1.4% has also been reported with an article claiming it could settle down to a flu-like rate of .1%. Again, we don't know
3. How soon a vaccine is available.
We have flu vaccines. They don't always match up with the type of flu in a given year but experts agree that they help.
There is nothing for the coronavirus at this time. It could take a year, two years, or be available within a few weeks. We don't know.
The Unknowns
The unknowns here the big deal. A quick comparison just looking at the US gives a wide range of outcomes.
In 2016-17, approximately 29 million people got the flu and 38,000 or about .13% died. [CDC]
If the coronavirus infects and spreads at the same rate as the flu but still lives up to the death rates shown above. Then 2% of 29 million or 580,000 deaths could be expected. If the death rate is only 1% then expected deaths could be 290,000.
But, at this point there is reason to believe it could be more infectious than the flu. What if twice as many people were infected?
58 million infections at a 2% death rate would be over a million deaths, in the US.
A comparison....
- Flu 29,000,000 infected at .13% death rate = 38,000 deaths
- CV with same infection rate but 2% death rate = 580,000 deaths
- CV with same infection rate but 1% death rate = 290,000 deaths
- CV with twice the infection rate and 2% death rate = 1,160,000 deaths
- CV with twice the infection rate but 1% death rate = 580,000 deaths
- CV the same as the flu = 38,000 deaths
Also, we have tools to fight the flu. There is a flu vaccine to limit the infection rate and Tamiflu to help the infected fight it off. They don't always work but they help. At this point we don't have anything for the CV.
So,...... It could be "the same as the flu". Hell, it could be less deadly than the flu but it could be a hell of a lot worse with maybe 20 or 30 times as many deaths. We just don't know.
And I know there are those who disagree with these numbers but this is based on the numbers out there at this time. They are subject to change.
And again,.......I'm not claiming any of the above will happen. Hell, I don't have a clue but I do know.....
"Anyone claiming to "know" that "it's not really any worse than the flu" is misinformed or spouting propaganda."Anyone claiming it is a hoax is a fool.
tnb
Some links:
No comments:
Post a Comment