The Economy

These are from the normally a little bearish Wolf  Richter so maybe the Fed is on the right track.

Sales/spending are not bad.

I’m Surprised How Well Retail Sales Held Up despite Price Drops of Many Goods as Spending & Inflation Shifted to Services 

Credit card balances are high but compared to income not too bad. 

Households Far from “Tapped Out”: Credit Card Balances, Burden, Available Credit, Delinquencies & Collections 

Overall Debt compared to income is not bad.

Household Debt as % of Disposable Income Fell to Good-Times Lows, on Much Higher Incomes Despite the OMG Headlines

I tend to watch consumer debt with a focus on auto loan and credit card debt. Auto debt scares me a little... I'll be watching for signs of trouble there, aging and repos. When credit card debt explodes the people are running out of cash and buying necessities on credit so again will be watching for signs of trouble, delinquencies, defaults.

Interest rates are up which in general is bad for borrowers but a lot of home mortgage debt is locked in at lower rates and those higher interest rates are great for people with cash in the bank. There are a lot of boomers with extra disposable cash right now.

Overall, it looks like the FED is doing a decent job of slowing things without crashing the job market.

Of course the Rs in congress could wreck it all with their debt-ceiling antics but that's another story.