5.30.2023

The Debt Ceiling Deal

A good one from Noah Smith:  The debt ceiling deal: What was the whole point? - A manufactured crisis leads to an ineffectual "solution"

In other words, the debt ceiling deal has a little bit of positive, a little bit of negative, and a whole lot of disappointing “meh”. Normally, a bill like that would be nothing to write home about; I probably wouldn’t even bother with a blog post, even on a slow news week. But what frustrates me about this nothingburger of a result is how incredibly costly it was to produce. The House GOP went through months of dramatic, high-stakes negotiations, forced the administration to consider the Fourteenth Amendment and the trillion dollar coin, got the media talking seriously about the prospect of a U.S. sovereign default, and made America look like a dysfunctional circus in front of our allies at a time when China is looking for any excuse to declare that the West is failing…and all that for a little bit of discretionary spending restraint, a few added work requirements for food stamps, and a little defunding of the IRS? Seriously?? It’s like if a guy walked into a restaurant with a ticking bomb demanding to blow everyone up if he didn’t get a free peppermint!

 

 

2024 Deep Fakes

AI created deepfakes may wreck the 2024 election. 

2024 is going to be a shit-show. 

The October Surprise will rise to new level and last most of the campaign. Every media story, especially social media and campaign productions, should be assumed to be fake.

Also,

Could AI carry out coups next unless stopped now?

Yep! Several elections (and Brexit) were manipulated by social media prior to the 2016 US election (test runs?) so we should be looking for deep fake use in all world elections leading up to 2024 to try to get a handle on it.

 

Meanwhile, the BBC brings us this stupid shit.

Artificial intelligence could lead to extinction, experts warn


Back in the US, Congress is thinking about it. (That'll help!?)

When It Comes To AI In Elections, We’re Unprepared For What’s Coming

Unprepared is right. I'm not sure any law can help. AI is out there. Social Media is out there. the People are addicted to it. I don't see any way to get a handle on it. Hell, we still don't have a handle on Facebook misinformation and it's been nearly 10 years since it surfaced.

And ... Like the gun nuts say "when AI is outlawed only outlaws (and political operatives) will have AI". 

Deep Fakes will be a factor in in 2024. I think the best we can hope for is that there are so many deep fakes going around that people mostly ignore them.



5.29.2023

The Debt Deal

Good post with better comments from the Heisenberg Report.

The Heisenberg Report: Good News

From the comments.




5.26.2023

Productivity

How some people get away with doing nothing at work

The last company I was at had about 20-25 people (out of 100 full time workers) who basically did nothing (or very little) most of the time.  

How is this, or changes in this, captured in our productivity numbers?

Related. Securonomics vs productivity

5.25.2023

DeSantis or Trump

Some silly chatter from today's morning read.

The BBC asks Will these Trump voters back DeSantis this time?

And No More Mister Nice thinks FOX NEWS IS SO OVER RON DeSANTIS.

Again, just meaningless chatter.

At this point, Fox doesn't care whether Trump or Desantis is the candidate and the Trump voters may or may not like Desantis but ... once the candidate is chosen, Fox will start firing-up the Cult. 

By Nov 2024 The Cult will be full of hate for the Leftist-Socialist-Marxist D candidate fully behind whoever the Rs choose.

 



5.24.2023

The Uninsured

Our media talk way too much about the uninsured.

People don't need or even want health insurance. 

They want health care.

Medicare-for-all !!

The US Uninsured and the Take-Up Problem 

and 

https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1660466258813280257?s=20

5.22.2023

Teaching Poor Kids

Taught for America  

Wow.

I've heard stories like this, though not quite at this level, from a family member who helps out in kindergarten in a rural mid-west school, 5 year old grabs scissors and threatens to kill people, kid trashes the room and the staff is told to just let him go we can't touch him, another threatens to bring a gun, etc.

The kids are wild and parents usually blame the school, teacher, or other kids for being the root of the problem.


5.20.2023

Music

Prison Walls by Todd Snider.

Great song. Not a great recording but the best I could find.

American Corrupitalism

Worth Reading.

The United States of Bed Bath & Beyond 

In the American context, my personal view is that all of the signature economic policies of the past 30 years — ALL of them, from NAFTA to the Bush Tax Cuts to TLGP/TARP to QE1/2/3/infinity to Obamacare to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to PPP to the American Rescue Plan to the Inflation Reduction Act – have been bust-out policies. 

 

 

5.18.2023

Medicare for All

A good post by Steve Randy Waldman at Interfluidity on how our current healthcare system creates excess demand for things it makes money on.

 
Decommodification and health care utilization

US and the Middle East

A pretty good summary of how Trump and Netanyahu blew-up Obama's Iran Agreement and opened the door for China to move into the historically US dominated area.

China and the Axis of the Sanctioned: How America’s Divide-and-Rule Strategy in the Middle East Backfired

 

Class in the US

I'm guessing most poor people don't get to "report" to prison.

Elizabeth Holmes must report to prison by May 30

5.17.2023

The Economy

These are from the normally a little bearish Wolf  Richter so maybe the Fed is on the right track.

Sales/spending are not bad.

I’m Surprised How Well Retail Sales Held Up despite Price Drops of Many Goods as Spending & Inflation Shifted to Services 

Credit card balances are high but compared to income not too bad. 

Households Far from “Tapped Out”: Credit Card Balances, Burden, Available Credit, Delinquencies & Collections 

Overall Debt compared to income is not bad.

Household Debt as % of Disposable Income Fell to Good-Times Lows, on Much Higher Incomes Despite the OMG Headlines

I tend to watch consumer debt with a focus on auto loan and credit card debt. Auto debt scares me a little... I'll be watching for signs of trouble there, aging and repos. When credit card debt explodes the people are running out of cash and buying necessities on credit so again will be watching for signs of trouble, delinquencies, defaults.

Interest rates are up which in general is bad for borrowers but a lot of home mortgage debt is locked in at lower rates and those higher interest rates are great for people with cash in the bank. There are a lot of boomers with extra disposable cash right now.

Overall, it looks like the FED is doing a decent job of slowing things without crashing the job market.

Of course the Rs in congress could wreck it all with their debt-ceiling antics but that's another story.



Democracy Slipping Away

A good post here on how legal government can slowly slip away during emergencies or how emergencies can be used to take over existing governments.

States of Emergency as a Script for Undermining Constitutional Government

5.15.2023

Israel vs Palestine

Good post here on the evolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

United Nations for First Time Recognizes 1948 Israeli Ethnic Cleansing (Nakbah) of Palestinians


 

Small Cracks ...

... beginning to form in Trumps hold on the GOP.

Trump's legal issues and pulling out of a Iowa event

Rick Perry teases possible presidential bid, declines to support Trump campaign.

This NYT's headline is the first positive think I've seen about DeSantis in a while.


 

 

Small cracks i know but it would only take a couple more GOPers with the balls to bail on Trump and he'd be done.

Odd Times. I think most Ds would like to see Trump run ... thinking he'd be easier to beat than a less crazy R. 

Behind the scenes, most Rs would like to get rid of him but none have the courage to say it out loud.

Going to be wild year.

COVID Vaccine

In September of 2020 only 43% of Republicans  and 58% of Democrats said they would probably (or definitely) get the vaccine. Pew Research.

Today 81% have received at least one shot. Johns Hopkins

A lot of people changed their minds. Seeing people die will do that to you.

The Cult

The result of the last 40 years of conservative talk radio and Fox News telling listeners that the main-stream media was lying to them.

Building The Cult That Trump took over.

This explains everything

 


 

Democrats

A lot of what is wrong with the Democratic party can be found in this interview with Dmitri Mehlhorn.

Basically they are just afraid of doing anything that might rock the boat. Afraid of Trump. Afraid of losing the center. Afraid of losing the undecided voter. Afraid of progressives or any progressive reform/idea. Afraid of not catering to Israeli issues.

They want power but just too fucking scared of losing to lead.

Lead, follow, or get out of the way.

How Democratic insiders are thinking about 2024

5.14.2023

Foreign Cash in US Politics.

Not cash for politicians directly but for think tanks who really drive most policy anyway. 

Biden Is Letting Think Tanks and Dodgy Foreign Funders Get Cozy Again

"... the White House has stopped requesting that American think tanks disclose funding from foreign governments."

A bad move by the administration. 

I agree with that think tanks should list how much money they receive and where it comes from, countries or individuals, but this post just scratches the surface.

Israel is not mentioned though must be one of the largest contributors.

Dictatorships and Russia are mentioned but most of the focus is on the UAE which seems odd?



 

Netanyahu and Gaza

Why does Israel occasionally just bomb the shit out of Gaza?

So Netanyahu can get headlines like this.

Jerusalem Post 5/14/2023

Netanyahu was on the ropes for a near fascist takeover a month ago now he's all smiles. 

CNN - The New Fox

A very Fox News-like main headline from CNN this morning. 

Making sure The Cult knows San Francisco/California is a leftist urban hell-hole. 



5.10.2023

The Liberal Media Isn't

The US corporate media isn't really that far left. They will rarely support real leftist issues like socialized healthcare, unions, higher taxes on the rich, etc but they do generally support lefty social issues like freedom and equality for everyone, race, LGBTQ issues, etc. 

Here's a case where the headline puts a right-wing twist on data that clearly shows the opposite.

The front-page headline.


Almost every piece of data in the article shows the majority against anti-trans policies.  

Whoever signed off on that headline should be fired.

A good summary here. 

A WaPo Poll Found That Significant Majorities Support Pro-Trans Policies, But Reported The Exact Opposite:  Putting a giant "Most in U.S. back GOP's anti-trans policies" headline on the front page when describing a poll that found that to be false is journalistic malpractice. 

The original article here:

Most Americans support anti-trans policies favored by GOP, poll shows

 

 

 

5.07.2023

Inequality

Gaming the way wealth tends to pile up at one end of the spectrum and that taxes sprinkle some of that wealth back on the masses.

Why the super rich are inevitable

 

 

 

 

Trump BS

From Felix Salmon: Unemployment rate among Black Americans


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump often bragged about how his administration brought Black unemployment to its lowest level ever. Well, that's not true now but it was basically bullshit when he said it. Yeah, it hit the lowest point ever (until now) under his administration but it had been falling continuously during the Obama years. Like most of the economic claims of Trump, this was really just a continuation of the Obama years.



5.06.2023

Democrats in 2024

Bracing for impact: Biden world preps for Hunter Biden fallout: Biden aides are more worried about the personal toll it will take on the president as a father.

My hope for 2024 is that Biden and Democrats get their shit together and change their candidate with some story like, "President Biden has decided to withdraw from the the nomination due in part to his age and in part because of the continuing controversy around the Hunter Biden story. The American people deserve a President who is younger, more in-tune with today's world and has impeccable ethical standing".

Replacing Biden would take the air out of the right-wing propaganda sails, leave the Republican dirty tricksters scrambling to fight a new candidate and put the Ds on the moral high-ground if the Rs run with Trump and all of his legal woes. 

...  Then I see articles like this.

Biden names Neera Tanden as his domestic policy adviser

2024 is going to be a shit show.

American Crapitalism

The free-market, or at least the American Crapitalist version, just can't stop fucking with the people. 

This is one of those things

How companies make it difficult to unsubscribe. I unsubscribed from 16 online services and documented the ways companies made it, knowingly (or unknowingly), challenging.

Libertarians in the crowd will find a way to blame this on some government program. 

Most of my Trump/Republican/Lib-Hating friends simply accept that it sucks but ...  you know, that's the way it is and by-the-way we need more guns and less government and ...  why are you drinking that gay beer?



 

 

 

US vs China

The world would be a lot better place if the US and China could just get-along and cooperate. 

Martin Wolf thinks so too.

US-China relations have entered a frightening new era

 



 

 

 

 

5.04.2023

DeSantis and Insurnace

I would really like a government that served as a third leg between "The People" and businesses constantly raping people for profits.

A good reason not to vote for Desantis.

Ron DeSantis Has Raked in $3.9 Million From Insurance Industry, New Report Reveals

The governor’s committee and the Friends of Ron DeSantis PAC raked in $3.9 million from the insurance industry since its formation in 2018, according to a report released Wednesday by Hedge Clippers, a campaign organized by the Center for Popular Democracy, “including more than $150,000 in one day from dozens of State Farm agents.” The governor’s inaugural fund was also backed by a combined $125,000 from two property casualty insurers, People’s Trust Insurance and a subsidiary of Heritage Insurance.

and

Under DeSantis’s watch, home insurance premiums have risen from $1,988 to $4,231 on average, putting Floridians under financial strain to pay for insurance that sits at nearly three times the national average. And this year, home insurance premiums are expected to increase another 40 percent,


More on health insurance companies raping the people here.

Profiteering Against the Public Interest: Privatization of Health Care by Unitedhealth Group

+ Revenue of six giant Insurers (Anthem, Centene, Cigna, AVS/Aetna, Humana and UnitedHealth) more than quadrupled from 2010 to $1.1 trillion today.

+ Combined revenues of the 3 biggest (United, CVS/Aetna and Cigna) quintupled since 2010.

+ The Big 6 profits soared from $16.9 billion in 2010 to $60.7 billion in 2021.

+ Less than one in every ten dollars of national health care spending flowed through the Big 6 insurers in 2010; today the number has risen to almost one of every four dollars.

Smell the Freedom

Here's some red state freedom for you.

Jewish doctor denied payment from Arkansas after refusing to rule out Israel boycott