Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

9.13.2011

Tuesday crap

A realistic look at the US, Israel and Palestinian Statehood. [Shooting ourselves in the foot at the UN - Opinion - Al Jazeera English]

Look for a rash of Anti-Turkey, pro-Kurd, pro-Armenian articles in the US media.
"Jerusalem fights back: Foreign Minister Lieberman formulates series of tough moves in response to Turkish steps; Israel to cooperate with Armenian lobby in US, may offer military aid to Kurdish rebels." [Israel to Punish Turkey]

Why the recovery is slow. [The Sluggish Recovery from the Great Recession: Why There Is No ‘V’ Rebound This Time]

Why income and wealth equality matter [Asset inflation, price inflation, and the great moderation]

tnb

8.07.2011

The Depth of the Recession

These charts from [Calculated Risk: Summary for Week ending August 5th] show the striking depth of the current recession. Tea-Baggers, please note the dates.





tnb

8.01.2011

Credit Ratings

Simon Johnson: Which Is in Worse Shape, U.S. or Europe? - NYTimes.com

I guess it doesn't matter now but I don't understand how a credit downgrade would have had much effect. If we're still the best bet around where else is the money going to go?

tnb

7.23.2011

The Factory Age

NYT: Economix: The Factory Age Isn't Over

The number of factories in the United States employing more than 1,000 workers fell by one-third from 1997 to 2007, leaving 1,014 such factories. This probably will not surprise you. The shattered windows of empty factories have become a familiar sight.

But a new study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis puts an interesting twist on this familiar narrative. It reports that most of those factories did not close. They simply employ fewer people.

Of the factories that fell from the list of large employers, the study found that 48 percent still employed more than 500 people. Another 7 percent employed from 250 to 500 people. The remainder either had closed or employed fewer than 250 people.

The numbers predate the recession, making it likely that more of those factories have since closed or shed workers. But particularly at this moment, as millions of Americans struggle to find work, the study offers a reminder that our manufacturing base is to some extent a victim of its own success. In 1950, the United States Steel Corporation employed 30,000 workers at its plant in Gary, Ind. Today that factory employs only 5,000 workers. But they produce more steel: 7.5 million tons a year now, compared with 6 million tons then.

The study also includes an interesting list of new super factories, plants that employ at least 2,500 people. There were only 15 such factories. Four of them were built to make light trucks. Three were built to kill chickens. One makes guided missiles.

It may not be over but it sure looks like its fading.

tnb

Liquidity Trap?

[Krugman - This Age of Hicks].

Mr. Krugman knows a lot more about economics than I do but could there be another reason we're not seeing inflation from an increase in the money supply? I think it could depend on who captures the increase in the money supply, the masses or the wealthy.

If the increase in money supply is going into the hands of the masses here in the US, they would spend it buying cars, houses, flat screen TVs, etc, driving up the general price level up. Bang! Inflation!

But,.. if the increase in the money supply goes to a relatively few rich, whether individuals or firms, its effect on the price level in US would depend on how they choose to invest it.

If they invest in building factories, electric cars, power-plants and consumer-goods in the US then it should eventually spur economic growth which could lead to inflation, though it probably wouldn't happen right away since we have a lot of excess capacity at this time.

If they invest it in speculating on, and driving up the prices of commodities we'd have some inflation.

If they invest it in building factories, electric cars, power-plants and consumer-goods outside of the US it could spur economic growth and inflation in the rest of the world but not in the US, at least for a while.

If the rich basically just sit on it, put it away in government bonds, gold, diamonds, islands, paintings, dot com stocks, or housing based securities, it would lead to increases in asset prices possibly creating bubbles.

These last two are what appear to be happening now. The developing world is seeing some inflation. US corporations are setting on large piles of cash. Stock prices have reflated since the bust. Gold is sky-high. Bond prices are high, driving interest rates down (from either the FED buying or investors who still have a bad taste from the housing bust or are scared of the European PIGS) and there's no inflation in sight.

Liquidity trap? maybe? but it looks to me like the wealthy aren't using their money wisely for the good of the economy. That, in my opinion, is a good reason for a tax increase on the rich.

tnb

7.17.2011

Scary Stuff

NYT - DAVID LEONHARDT

The auto industry is on pace to sell 28 percent fewer new vehicles this year than it did 10 years ago — and 10 years ago was 2001, when the country was in recession. Sales of ovens and stoves are on pace to be at their lowest level since 1992. Home sales over the past year have fallen back to their lowest point since the crisis began. And big-ticket items are hardly the only problem.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently published a jarring report on what it calls discretionary service spending, a category that excludes housing, food and health care and includes restaurant meals, entertainment, education and even insurance. Going back decades, such spending had never fallen more than 3 percent per capita in a recession. In this slump, it is down almost 7 percent, and still has not really begun to recover.

The past week brought more bad news. Retail sales in June were weaker than expected, and consumer confidence fell, causing economists to downgrade their estimates for economic growth yet again. It’s a familiar routine by now. Forecasters in Washington and on Wall Street keep saying the recovery’s problems are temporary — and then they redefine temporary.

tnb

Creditor vs Debtor

Two groups of related posts on the balance of power between the creditor and debtor classes. lots of good comments.

[Kuttner] and [Krugman]

[RortyBomb] background posts here:[Yglesias 1], [Corey Robin 1], [Yeglesias-Robin]

The world's elite favor the creditors at this time.

tnb

7.13.2011

Military Spending

Hey all you Reagan-lovers, remember how he destroyed the USSR by keeping them in an arms race that destroyed their economy. Do you think China could do that to us? Our great leaders ARE talking about gutting social programs and other internal spending while leaving military spending untouched.

Glenn Greenwald - China and the US military

tnb

7.12.2011

Jobs

from [Yglesias]


Government jobs have declined by 500,000 under Obama? Isn't this the president who was increasing the size of government?

Anyway, isn't this what republicans and tea-baggers want, smaller government? but still, unemployment is high, and not showing signs of shrinking. Could it be that a job is a job, government or private, they both give people the cash they need to buy things. When people buy things, factories make money, hire people and the economy grows. Government shrinking is adding to our unemployment and that's not good for our economy, no matter what Fox News says.

tnb

7.09.2011

Cutting Government Spending

Three related posts on what happens to an economy when government spending is cut. hint,...you get higher unemployment.

Capital Gains and Games - Right Analogy, Wrong Timing

Paul Krugman

Yglesias

Off The Charts

tnb

Government vs Private Sector

This [Why is reducing government jobs considered a free lunch?] at [Richard's Real Estate and Urban Economics Blog] touches one of my gripes about the current crop of big government haters, they hate things the government does but accept those same things when the private sector does them. a cut..

Is there waste in the public sector? Sure. But for those working in the private sector, particularly large institutions, ask yourself whether everyone you work with is productive. I have no idea what the "correct" level of public sector employment is. I also have no idea how much public sector employment crowds out the private sector, but if the crowding out effect is less than one (and with unemployment above nine percent, I am guessing the effect must be less than one), then reducing government employment reduces total employment. But to think that cutting government employment is a magic pill for economic recovery makes no sense

Sure, waiting at the license branch pisses me off and maybe the post office isn't as efficient as Fedex or UPS but these systems do work and they do create jobs for local people who then spend that money in the local economy. With unemployment over 9% we need jobs and economic activity even at the cost of some efficiency.

But you know, I see a lot of inefficiency in the private sector too.

Many of those state highway departments that used to have one guy working and five guys leaning on shovels wasting my tax dollars have been replaced with private contractors whose crews now have one guy working, four guys leaning on shovels, a CEO drawing a huge salary, extra profits for the investors and lobby money for the politicians. All of this coming out of my tax dollars. Is this really more efficient than a government run highway department?

Dealing with a big corporation doesn't seem any more efficient to me than dealing with big government. Think about headaches you've had with your cable or cell phone company. Are big banks and finance companies easy to deal with? How was you last call to your television or computer's customer service line? Most likely you spent hours on the phone talking to someone on the other side of the planet that didn't really help you much. How did that customer service job help the US economy? How is that any better than dealing with a government office?

I think government programs have a better, more productive, more local, internal economic focus than corporate industry and this may make up for some inefficiencies.

Think about the highway department. A local government highway department may cost a little more to run than a large private contractor covering many localities, (there are some economies of scale but really, to do the work at the same level they'll need about the same number of worker-bees, maybe a few less management types) but, a local, government run department would employ more local people who are more apt to spend their earnings locally, while the contractor will employ more out-of-town employees who won't spend locally and then send a large portion of the profits to the investor class, effectively sucking cash out of the local economy. Would you rather spend a few more tax dollars and have them spent locally or spend a few less and send them out of your area?

Big corporations also suck dollars from the community that locally owned business would preserve.

Think about an old-time, privately owned, local business, maybe a hardware store or restaurant. The owner would employ local people, spend his money in the area, deposit and keep it in the local bank, his profits were poured into the local community. He cared about his business and would generally take care of the place. It was his, he owned it and cared for it. He might pass it along to his family or one of his workers some day.

In today's corporate world, out of town investors own the company. Sure, hey hire local people to work and manage the place but I don't think these hired-guns care as much about the business as an owner would, it's a landlord-tenant relationship, where neither care as much for the place as an owner-operator would. The profits are sucked out of the local economy and shipped out to investors around the world, never to return to the area. They are in-effect mining the local area for dollars, sucking out all they can then leaving when the well runs dry. How can this be better for a local economy? Sure, the consumer may save a few dollars on purchases but at what cost to the local community?

On a larger scale, is letting an illegal alien take a job in the US and then spend his earnings in the US, worse than letting a corporation, just to gain efficiency, ship that job over-seas where the only money that returns to the US is a dividend check to a rich guy?

Government is the wrong enemy here. The true bad-guy is the large corporation. The people are the government and with our local, state, and federal forms, some government is always going to be focused on our localities, on us. That's not the case with the large corporation, they only care for themselves, their profits. Your community is just a resource to be mined for profits, until it's depleted then they move on.

Government is needed to protect us from this but it's losing the battle because the corporations control the message. They own the media. Hell, they are the media and they set the tone they want. They fear and hate the government and to continue to make the profits they require, they need the people to hate it too. So, the message from them is that government is inefficient, evil, stealing your tax dollars and we, the giant corporation can do it better". That is the Corporate message. I don't believe it.

tnb

6.26.2011

Greece and other stuff

A couple of late night finds.

[Protect the bond holders at all costs]

How does the chief risk officer at Lehman Brothers from 2002-2007 ever get another job? [Ex Lehman chief risk officer appointed world bank treasurer]

tnb

How the computer changed our world?

Summed-up very nicely by this cartoon [Found Here]


This comic may be the best explanation of how the PC changed our world that I've ever seen. Of course today it's not really happening on a desk computer but on a phone.

tnb

Wealth and Income Inequality in the US

Here are several good charts showing that the super rich are taking more and more of US wealth and income. [Business Insider]


This charts shows that from the 40s to about 1980 income inequality was relatively stable. Then in the 80's we fell in love with cutting taxes to spur the economy and the money started piling up in the super-wealthy's hands. Now the super wealthy have the biggest slice of the American Wealth pie and the economy sucks for the rest of us.

So, go look through these 16 charts and then explain to me again why we should attack our current debt problem by cutting Social Security and Medicare and not raising the tax rate on the rich.

tnb

6.19.2011

The Economy

Robert Reich on the current state of the economy



We'd never see an explanation like this in our corporate media because it and most of our politicians are owned by the super rich, or at least by the corporations and lobby groups they control.

Another "division" would be democrat vs republican. The corporate ruling class keep the middle and lower classes divided (about 50-50, D vs R)with a corrupt, fake, two-party system that forces people to choose our leaders based on moral, race, religious, or other manufactured, hot-button issues like debt/deficit. In reality we only get to choose from one party, the corporate elite, the Corporat party.

tnb